2024 Ends - What's Coming in 2025?

A Summary of 2024:

1. Median Sale Price:

• In Cambridge, Kitchener, and Guelph, median sale prices have been steady throughout 2024, compared to 2023. While early 2024 saw some fluctuations, the general direction remains positive, reflecting strong demand in all three cities.

• The market is showing resilience, with continued price stability, especially in areas with limited inventory. This trend suggests that buyers are still competing for desirable properties in these cities.

2. Number of Sales:

• Sales numbers in Cambridge, Kitchener, and Guelph have fluctuated, with slower months in Spring 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. However, sales activity has picked up significantly in the latter part of the year, indicating a recovery in the activity of the market.

• In particular, Kitchener and Guelph have seen a noticeable rebound in sales as we approach the end of 2024, showing that buyer interest is returning as interest rates have started to fall.

3. Median Days on Market:

• The median days on market across Cambridge, Kitchener, and Guelph has remained strong, indicating that there is still the desire to move & get moving. This trend is driven by the healthy local economic factors that we benefit from, as well as the affordability of our market compared to the nearby GTA housing. 

• Particularly in Cambridge and Kitchener, where properties are typically priced more affordably compared to Guelph, homes are being snapped up faster, reflecting a more competitive market.

• While we recommend that sellers exercise patience if their home falls outside the median price points for these markets, homes are generally selling at a good pace, making it an attractive time to move.

What to Expect Moving Forward (Moving into 2025):

• Impact of Interest Rate Reductions:

• Recent interest rate reductions in the second half of 2024 have already sparked increased activity in the Cambridge, Kitchener, and Guelph markets. As borrowing costs decrease, purchasing power rises, leading to more buyer interest. With strong local economies and attractive amenities, these cities are projected to see continued price stability with potential for modest growth and increased market activity.

• *Note: While interest rates play a role, inventory levels are likely to be the primary driving force behind median prices moving forward.

• Market Outlook:

• Continued Demand: With lower interest rates and a stable local economy, demand for properties in Cambridge, Kitchener, and Guelph is expected to continue to rise. Buyers are likely to be drawn to these cities due to their affordability compared to markets within the GTA.

• Price Appreciation: Prices are expected to begin appreciating in spring 2025, particularly in sought-after neighborhoods with limited inventory, growing amenities, and well-rated schools. The rate of appreciation is anticipated to be modest. While I'll primarily monitor inventory levels and any potential rate reductions, the long-term trend remains upward.

• Faster Sales: With sustained demand, homes in Cambridge and Kitchener are likely to experience healthy turnover, particularly because median prices are lower than in Guelph, which will help maintain a competitive market.

Summary:

Throughout 2024, the Cambridge, Kitchener, and Guelph real estate markets have remained resilient, with increased sales activity and steady price growth as the year comes to a close. Recent interest rate reductions have renewed buyer interest, fueling positive momentum. Housing stock is unlikely to exceed the levels seen over the past two years, due to the ongoing scarcity of new freehold housing, which is expected to continue driving competition. Moving into 2025, the outlook remains strong, with sustained demand, the potential for rising prices, and faster sales, particularly in well-established neighborhoods with strong amenities and proximity to key employment centers.

Median Sale Price

Number of Sales

Median Days on Market